"Where else would you go when you have an ax to grind?"

Saturday, December 02, 2006

First ballot result and irresponsible speculation

Ignatieff 29.3%
Rae 20.3%
Dion 17.8%
Kennedy 17.7%
Dryden 4.9%
Brison 4.0%
Volpe 3.2%
Hall Findlay 2.7%

Joe Volpe has already announced he is dropping out to support Rae, though apparently several of his campaign staff have joined Ignatieff's team. Brison has announced he will drop out and throw his support to an as yet unnamed candidate (One of the four front runners obviously, and my guess is most likely Ignatieff)

I suspect Hall Findlay will join the Rae team and Dryden will hold out until the second ballot is done. I would have liked to have seen Dryden do a little better, but with all the delegates forced to dance with the fella that brung 'em on the first ballot, I didn't really expect much more. I do on the second ballot. I heard his speech was a great one and I think he is a popular second choice on his electability.

I think Ignatieff is likely to lose support in the second round, while Rae, Kennedy and Dion pick up more -- it will be interesting to see if there is some kind of backroom move by Rae and Ignatieff to throw a few votes to Kennedy to make sure he and not Dion finishes third in the next few rounds. I don't know if Rae wants to go mano a mano with his old Uof T roommate just yet or not, but I think that is what it is going to come down to in the end.

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