Second ballot results
Michael Ignatieff first ballot 1412 second ballot 1481
Bob Rae first ballot 977 second ballot 1132
Stephane Dion first ballot 856 second ballot 974
Gerard Kennedy first ballot 854 second ballot 884
Ken Dryden first ballot 238 second ballot 219
Dryden will be dropped for the third ballot, where his supporters go is going to make a huge difference if they move en masse. If they split up more or less evenly, Kennedy is probably done and who he backs (I'd guess Rae) could very well determine the outcome.
In terms of momentum, of the votes freed up by candidates bowing out - a total of 478 plus the 19 voters who defected from Dryden (so much for my prediction of him gaining support - I guess the speeches really don't matter) makes a grand total of 497 swing votes.
Ignatieff gains 69
Rae gains 155
Dion gains 118
Kennedy gains 30
Frankly, I think Kennedy gaining 30 is a bigger boost than the front runner Ignatieff gaining 69. I think Kennedy might be toast, but unless he throws to Ignatieff -- well lets just hope they kept Iggy' s seat at Harvard warm for him. I don't think Iggy can do it without Kennedy or Dion throwing in with him. I don't think Rae would do it, I doubt Kennedy would do it. Since it is 2:30 in the morning Tokyo time I'll make my bet now and find out who actually won and how when I wake up later today.
Kennedy supports Rae, who takes it on the fourth (possibly third) ballot. I'd call this the most likely as they agree on the "Quebec as a nation" question and are the two furthest left of center.
Kennedy supports Dion after being dropped following the third ballot, Dion wins on the fifth in a showdown with Iggy or Rae.
Dion supports Ignatieff prior to the third ballot, giving him the win - not so likely, as Dion thinks he can win and a lot of his supporters hate Iggy more than any other candidate.
Total long shot would be that Dryden backs Kennedy, who pushes past Dion to come third on the third ballot, Dion then supports Kennedy (very unlikely I know, in light of the "nation" thing) who wins on the fourth or fifth ballot.
My Prediction: this time next year we will be talking about how similar Prime Minister Bob Rae is to Jean Chretien and how cool Dryden's early education and child care plan is.
Kennedy supports Dion
"Where else would you go when you have an ax to grind?"
Saturday, December 02, 2006
Second ballot results